The 2025 NBA All-Star Game introduces an innovative format while featuring many familiar names. Unlike the 2023 event where captains drafted teams, and the 2024 return to the East vs. West format, this year brings a fresh twist with a four-team tournament. This change highlights ongoing debates about All-Star Weekend's existential issues and adds a layer of complexity for those interested in betting on All-Star Weekend. As these events constantly evolve due to previous shortcomings, betting should be approached with caution.
Predicting which players will take the games seriously is challenging. Although I can't guarantee who will aim to win on Sunday, I can offer strategic guidance for navigating the All-Star betting market. While I'll provide picks for major events, understanding the thought processes involved is crucial. There's no surefire way to pick winners during All-Star Weekend, but strategic betting can help find the right value.
Time: First semifinal at 8:20 p.m. ET | Date: Sunday, Feb. 16
Location: Chase Center -- San Francisco
TV Channel: TNT | Live Stream: Max
Live Updates: Follow along for real-time coverage
Instead of suggesting a single pick to win the All-Star Tournament, I'm offering an overall strategy. This isn't about chasing a huge payout but playing the arbitrage game. Examine the lines for individual All-Star matchups. Notably, while Team Chuck vs. Team Kenny is evenly matched, Team Shaq is a -450 favorite over Team Candace. Team Candace, comprising the Rising Stars Challenge winners, is expected to struggle against veteran stars during the main All-Star games.
Given this scenario, consider betting on Team Shaq at plus-money odds on FanDuel (+100) to win the entire tournament. If Team Shaq wins their initial game, they are likely to be favored in the championship against either Team Chuck or Team Kenny. This strategy isn't about predicting which All-Stars will fight for a win or which rosters are most logical. It's about betting against rookies and sophomores. While not particularly bold, it's a calculated move, especially given the Rising Stars' unpredictable nature.
Choosing the MVP is challenging this year due to the multi-team format. Traditionally, picking a starter is advised, as no reserve has won since Russell Westbrook in 2015. However, this year, the NBA named 10 starters across three teams, meaning the starter rule may not apply. With less depth, everyone is likely to play more, and the untimed nature of the games, targeting a score of 40, means a few hot stretches could determine the winner.
Given this, scoring guards are a smart choice. Historically, since 2010, only two big men, Anthony Davis and Giannis Antetokounmpo, have won the MVP. The rest were perimeter players. While Stephen Curry at +550 is a popular choice, being the hometown hero and on Team Shaq, better odds are available elsewhere.
Consider longer shots like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+800), Donovan Mitchell (+2400), and Trae Young (+4200) from Team Chuck, primarily composed of international players and big men. Gilgeous-Alexander, a standout with 31 points as a starter last year, is the regular-season MVP favorite, attracting attention. Young offers value, motivated by his initial exclusion from the All-Star game and his style suits the format with deep 3s and flashy passes.
