The highly anticipated 2025 MLB season kicks off on Tuesday, March 18, with an exciting matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Chicago Cubs in the inaugural game of the Tokyo Series. Fans can catch the action live from the iconic Tokyo Dome at 6:10 a.m. ET, with broadcast coverage available on FOX, SportsNet LA, and the Marquee Sports Network.
According to current odds from BetMGM, the Dodgers are favored at -160 on the moneyline, while the Cubs have been set as +135 underdogs. The game's over/under is set at 8 runs, with the line at -105 for the over and -115 for the under. For those interested in the run line, the Dodgers are +105 to cover at -1.5, and the Cubs are -125 to cover at +1.5.
In my Dodgers vs. Cubs predictions, I lean towards betting on the Cubs moneyline at +135, which I would adjust to +122. Additionally, I see value in betting the total runs over 7.5 at -110, moving to -115. My projections have the Dodgers as -113 favorites (53.1% implied) for this matchup, with a total of 8.12 runs anticipated.
In a historic moment, this matchup features two Japanese pitchers, with three-time Sawamura Award winner Yoshinobu Yamamoto facing off against his 2023 WBC teammate, Shota Imanaga. Imanaga, who achieved impressive rankings last season, will be looking to lead the Cubs against a Dodgers lineup missing key player Mookie Betts, who is out due to illness. The Dodgers are also contending with injuries to several relievers, including Evan Phillips and Michael Kopech, which could impact their bullpen depth.
The Cubs, meanwhile, will be without regular second baseman Nico Hoerner, but their defense remains strong with elite players like Dansby Swanson and Pete Crow-Armstrong, who excel in defensive metrics. Despite Betts' absence, the Dodgers still boast a formidable lineup, but the question remains how they will adjust defensively with players like Miguel Rojas stepping in.
Yamamoto and Imanaga are both expected to throw around 90 pitches over five innings on Tuesday. Yamamoto, with a projected FIP of 3.24 to 3.54, is seen as a top-15 pitcher heading into the season, while Imanaga is projected in the top-35 range. Both pitchers have unique strengths; Yamamoto with his impressive ground-ball rate and Imanaga with his pitch modeling metrics.
As the matchup unfolds, the Dodgers' bullpen, featuring Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates, may hold an advantage despite missing some key arms. Conversely, the Cubs have concerns with their closer, Ryan Pressly, who has experienced declining performance metrics over the past three years.
The Tokyo Dome is known for its favorable hitting conditions, playing about 5% above the league average. Given its unique dimensions, we can expect a high home run factor. As such, I see significant value in player prop bets, particularly for hitters Kyle Tucker and Will Smith, both of whom have great potential for home runs in this park. Tucker's odds for a homer are set high at +540, while Smith sits at +525.
With the dimensions favoring opposite-field hits, I recommend considering both players for home runs and total bases bets, especially since their probabilities of hitting doubles or clearing 1.5 total bases are significantly higher than average odds in the betting market.
In conclusion, I project the Dodgers as -113 favorites for the matchup, with a total set at 8.12 runs. The betting trends indicate that a significant majority of bets are currently favoring the Dodgers on the moneyline and the total to go over. However, I see value in betting the Cubs down to +122 and playing the over on 7.5 runs.
As the game approaches, I will continue to update my projections and insights based on lineup confirmations and umpire announcements. Make sure to tune in for what promises to be an exciting opening day for the 2025 MLB season!
