Paul Chodas, the director of the center, shared in an email on Thursday that the asteroid 2024 YR4 is "clearly headed for zero" probability of impacting Earth, as was initially expected. Throughout this period, the probability of an impact has remained very low. Astronomers have consistently informed the public and science communicators to anticipate that while the probability might initially rise with new observations, it would eventually drop to zero.
The brief increase in the impact percentage is part of the process as astronomers refine their calculations. By adjusting and eliminating potential trajectories of the asteroid, they aim to determine that it will safely bypass Earth on December 22, 2032. With additional observations, astronomers are confident they will confirm the asteroid's orbit around the sun, dismissing any paths that could lead to a collision with Earth.
Despite the low risk, astronomers globally have been vigilant about tracking this asteroid. The potential impact of the rock, which is large enough to span a football field from goal line to goal line, initially raised its status to a 3 on the Torino impact scale. This scale measures the threat level to our planet, and a score of 3 was significant enough to activate the global warning system for the first time in 12 years. However, with the latest observations, the rating for asteroid 2024 YR4 has now decreased to a 1 on the Torino scale.
On Wednesday, the probability of an impact initially dropped to 1.5 percent, and Chodas noted that it had previously peaked at 3.1 percent. Further observations conducted with a telescope in Chile contributed to lowering the odds even more. Chodas emphasized that the revised probability does not indicate any errors in previous calculations. Instead, the new tracking data is clarifying the asteroid's trajectory, allowing scientists to be more certain that asteroid 2024 YR4 will miss Earth in 2032.
While asteroid 2024 YR4 is not large enough to pose an existential threat to civilization, its impact could be significant, traveling at approximately 38,000 mph. Recent weeks have seen scientists explain to The Washington Post that telescopes are becoming increasingly proficient at spotting asteroids. Such warnings, often accompanied by a flurry of news articles, including alarmist ones, are likely to become more common. The public should understand that these stories highlight an improved asteroid-detection network rather than an increased threat from space.
