In a surprising turn of events, the recent Wisconsin Supreme Court race has emerged as a significant indicator for the upcoming electoral landscape. Contrary to expectations of a low-turnout election, the voting levels in this race were notably robust, nearing those typically seen in a midterm election. This trend raises concerns for the GOP as the electorate appears increasingly favorable for Democrats as they prepare for the 2026 elections.
A staggering nearly 70 percent of ballots were cast in the recent election compared to the November elections. Candidate Crawford outperformed Vice President Kamala Harris by approximately 10 points in Wisconsin, suggesting a shift in voter sentiment. The turnout rates in this election mirrored those observed during the 2022 midterm elections, contrasting sharply with the 2023 Wisconsin Supreme Court election, where a liberal candidate also secured a substantial 10-point victory.
Charles Franklin, who leads the Marquette University Law School poll, noted, “Even though Republicans are losing in percentage terms, their mobilization efforts were effective; however, they simply attracted more Democratic voters.” This indicates that while Republicans successfully increased turnout among lower-propensity voters, the higher-propensity Democratic voters turned out in even greater numbers.
There were clear signs of heightened enthusiasm among Democrats, especially in strongholds with a well-educated base. For instance, in Dane County, home to Madison and the state’s flagship university, turnout soared to 78 percent of the levels expected for 2024. Crawford’s performance in this deep-blue county also exceeded Harris’s vote share by about 7 points.
Furthermore, Crawford managed to improve on Harris's vote share consistently across various counties, including those where Trump had previously won by a significant margin of at least 15 points last November. This broad improvement suggests a shift in voter dynamics and signals a challenging environment for the party currently in power.
Some Republicans have downplayed the implications of the results in Wisconsin, citing previous Democratic overperformance in special elections followed by Republican victories. Pollster Robert Blizzard remarked that while there may be a trend of higher turnout among educated voters, the results should not be considered entirely alarming for the GOP. However, he acknowledged that Democrats’ win was a significant signal ahead of the 2026 elections, emphasizing the need for Republicans to galvanize their base.
Democrats, on the other hand, are drawing comparisons between the recent win and the political climate of 2017, when grassroots energy and candidate recruitment fueled their success in the 2018 midterms. Democratic consultant Meredith Kelly noted the parallels, stating, “From town halls to protests, we’re seeing a resurgence of enthusiasm that could translate into electoral success.”
The geographic results of the election indicate that while Democrats may not have swayed conservative or independent voters, the higher turnout among liberal voters—even in traditionally red areas—suggests a favorable environment as both parties gear up for the midterms. Top Democratic leaders are taking notice of this momentum, with Rep. Lori Trahan stating that the recent results could restore hope among constituents eager to participate in upcoming elections.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries echoed these sentiments, highlighting a pattern of Democratic overperformance in special elections this year. He remarked, “This is the energy we’ve been seeing as House Democrats, and it’s a clear indication that we’re consistently outperforming expectations.”
As the political landscape evolves, the results of the Wisconsin Supreme Court race may well serve as a precursor for the challenges and opportunities that both parties will face in the lead-up to the next elections.
