The first major elections during President Donald Trump’s second term are set to unfold on Tuesday, as voters prepare to head to the polls in Wisconsin, a key battleground state, as well as in Florida, known for its pro-Trump sentiment. A significant influx of tens of millions of dollars has been invested in Wisconsin in anticipation of the state Supreme Court race, a contest that holds substantial national implications. This election marks the first significant statewide challenge in a battleground state since the 2024 election, and it is particularly noteworthy as it occurs in the state where Trump faced his narrowest victory margin in November.
In this high-stakes race, Elon Musk has emerged as a pivotal figure, expanding his political influence as he supports conservative causes. His involvement presents an early challenge for Democrats, testing whether this billionaire adviser to Trump can effectively galvanize voters against his party. Meanwhile, Florida voters will also participate in special elections across the deep-red 1st and 6th Congressional Districts, where Republicans aim to strengthen their slim House majority. Despite both districts being strongholds for Trump, there exists concern among Republicans about the potential competitiveness of these races, driven by increasing grassroots enthusiasm and financial backing for Democratic candidates.
The polls in Florida’s 6th District will close at 7 p.m. ET, while those in the 1st District, which is in the central time zone, will close at 8 p.m. ET. Wisconsin polls are set to close later, at 9 p.m. ET. Tuesday's Wisconsin Supreme Court race, though labeled as nonpartisan, carries enormous implications at both state and national levels. This election is particularly critical as it could shift the ideological balance of the court, which currently has a 4-3 liberal majority.
The ideological control of the Wisconsin Supreme Court is at stake, with a liberal victory maintaining their majority for at least another year. In contrast, a conservative win would grant them the upper hand just ahead of a term likely to address pivotal issues such as abortion rights, union regulations, and redistricting. The race features liberal candidate Susan Crawford, a state judge in Madison, who is supported by both state and national Democratic organizations, alongside financial backing from liberal billionaires. On the opposing side, Brad Schimel, a state judge and former Republican attorney general, is backed by Trump and Musk, who is currently leading Trump's Department of Government Efficiency.
Interestingly, while Trump's endorsement of Schimel came just 11 days before the election via a late-night social media post, Musk has taken a more prominent role throughout the campaign. Political science professor Barry Burden from the University of Wisconsin-Madison explains, “It’s become kind of a referendum on the Trump administration, and what Elon Musk is doing as part of that.” This connection between the election and national politics has been made clear by both Trump and Musk.
Campaign finance records reveal that Musk and his super PAC have invested at least $15 million to bolster Schimel’s campaign. This amount is in addition to three $1 million prizes Musk has awarded for signatures on his petition against “activist judges.” Musk even traveled to Wisconsin to campaign for Schimel in person. On the Democratic side, Crawford’s supporters have turned Musk into a focal point of their campaign, utilizing ads, public appearances, and social media to criticize his influence and connections to Schimel.
As the campaign has unfolded, Democrats and their affiliated groups have outspent Republicans significantly on advertising—nearly $42 million compared to around $33 million from conservative entities—making this the most expensive state Supreme Court race in history in terms of ad spending, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact. Despite the high stakes and financial commitments, turnout for this off-year spring election is expected to be lower than in presidential or midterm contests, prompting both sides to ramp up efforts to mobilize voters.
The special elections taking place in Florida will be conducted on Trump’s home turf, providing insight into his influence over his voter base and the enthusiasm of Democrats during his administration. Although Republicans are optimistic about winning both races, there are apprehensions that unexpectedly close results could indicate a resurgence of Democratic momentum. The victor in Florida’s 1st District will succeed former GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz, while the winner in the 6th District will fill the seat vacated by former GOP Rep. Mike Waltz, who now holds the position of Trump’s national security adviser. Trump won both districts decisively in the last election, with a 37-point lead in the 1st District and a 30-point lead in the 6th District, according to NBC News’ Decision Desk.
Despite the Republican dominance in these districts, the races have become more competitive due to anticipated lower voter turnout, a factor that Democrats have successfully exploited in other special elections during Trump’s tenure. Fundraising efforts from both Democratic candidates have also been noteworthy. In the 6th District, GOP state Sen. Randy Fine is up against Democratic teacher Josh Weil, with Republicans expressing concerns over Fine’s fundraising and late ad spending. In the 1st District, Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis faces off against Democrat Gay Valimont, a former activist with Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America.
Both Republican candidates enjoy Trump’s endorsement, further bolstered by tele-town halls held by the president urging his supporters to vote. Additionally, Musk’s super PAC has invested nearly $100,000 in phone calls and text campaigns for these races. While neither Democratic candidate has directly criticized Musk in their advertisements, both have indicated in interviews that Musk’s efforts to reduce the size of the federal government and potential GOP cuts to entitlement programs could negatively impact their campaigns, especially given the demographics of their districts, which include a substantial number of veterans and seniors.
Beyond the high-profile races, Wisconsin voters will encounter other local issues on the ballot that may not have garnered national attention but are nonetheless significant. A proposed amendment aims to enshrine an existing voter ID law into the state constitution, a move supported by conservatives to prevent potential invalidation by a liberal-majority court. Trump publicly endorsed this amendment in a social media post, and strategists believe it could help drive conservative turnout in the Supreme Court race.
Additionally, there is a state superintendent race that has become a referendum on the role Musk has played in reducing the federal government's influence on education. The incumbent, Dr. Jill Underly, backed by the state Democratic Party, faces challenger Brittany Kinser, who has received support from conservative groups. Kinser’s campaign heavily emphasizes expanding school choice programs, while Underly has sought to connect Kinser’s platform to Trump’s dismantling of the U.S. Department of Education and Musk’s initiatives.
