On Tuesday, voters in Wisconsin and Florida are heading to the polls for elections that are seen as a significant litmus test for Donald Trump’s ongoing popularity and the political influence of his billionaire ally, Elon Musk. The most closely watched contest is the battle for a seat on Wisconsin’s seven-member supreme court, where conservatives aim to flip the ideological control of the court, currently held by a 4-3 liberal majority.
The Wisconsin supreme court contest features liberal judge Susan Crawford facing off against conservative Brad Schimel. The outcome of this race will have profound implications for the state, as the supreme court is poised to make critical decisions regarding abortion rights and collective bargaining. Additionally, the court may mandate the state legislature to redraw Wisconsin’s congressional districts, which are currently skewed to favor Republicans, who control six out of eight districts.
This race has become the most expensive judicial election in American history, with over $80 million spent by both sides. Notably, Elon Musk and affiliated groups have contributed more than $20 million to the campaign. Musk even made a visit to Wisconsin over the weekend, where he distributed two $1 million checks to voters as part of a contest aimed at boosting voter engagement.
Musk’s involvement in the race began shortly after Tesla filed a lawsuit challenging a state law that restricts the company from opening car dealerships in Wisconsin. His financial backing coincides with a broader campaign against judges who have blocked Trump’s executive actions. In March, Trump publicly endorsed Schimel, further intensifying the stakes of the election.
Advertising expenditures for Crawford have reached $42.1 million, surpassing the $33.7 million spent on behalf of Schimel, according to AdImpact, a firm specializing in tracking political spending. This level of funding is significantly higher than the $51 million spent on the 2023 state supreme court race and is dramatically more than the combined $10 million spent during the 2020 election cycle.
Democrats are leveraging Musk’s involvement to energize voters who are concerned about his influence on federal governance. They are framing this race as a referendum on Trump’s recent two-and-a-half months in office. “The Wisconsin supreme court race is the first major test of Elon Musk’s political power since the November presidential race,” stated Ben Wikler, the chairman of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, in a March interview.
In Florida, eyes are focused on a special election to fill the vacancy left by Mike Waltz, who resigned from Congress to serve as Trump’s national security adviser. Waltz easily won re-election last year in the sixth congressional district, which encompasses Daytona Beach, with a commanding 33-point margin. However, recent developments indicate that this upcoming race may be more competitive than initially anticipated.
The Democratic candidate, Josh Weil, has raised over $10 million, while his Republican opponent, Randy Fine, who is still favored to win, has amassed around $1 million. Weil’s campaign has centered on highlighting the perceived threats that Musk poses to vital programs like Medicare and Social Security. Recent public and private polling has suggested a closer race than expected, as reported by Axios last week.
While Fine remains the frontrunner, a tight race could indicate momentum for Democrats. Flipping this seat would have significant repercussions in the US House, where Republicans hold a slim 218-213 majority (with four seats currently vacant) and cannot afford to lose any ground.
The urgency of this election has prompted Trump to withdraw the nomination of Elise Stefanik as his ambassador to the UN, a strategic move aimed at preserving the Republican majority in the House.
