Today marks primary election day in Virginia, a significant milestone as the state prepares for a crucial election year. In November, Virginians will head to the polls to vote for key positions, including governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, and all 100 seats in the lower house of the legislature. Political analysts are closely monitoring the campaigns for insights into how voters in this purple state are responding to the Trump administration as the 2026 midterms approach.
The primary candidates for governor are already established, with no major challenges from within their respective parties. The race will feature Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former representative of Virginia's 7th Congressional District, going up against Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, the current lieutenant governor. The political landscape that Spanberger and Earle-Sears will navigate before November appears to favor Democrats, but Republicans still have opportunities to make significant inroads.
Virginia has shifted slightly to the right in 2024; however, Vice President Kamala Harris managed to win the state by six points. This rightward shift has been influenced significantly by Trump's gains in the suburbs surrounding Washington, D.C. These areas are likely to feel the impact of the Trump administration's cuts to the federal workforce acutely. The outcome will depend on whether Earle-Sears can solidify her support in these suburbs or if Spanberger can channel the frustration with the Trump administration's policies into voter support.
At 45, Spanberger's political journey began as a volunteer with the local chapter of Moms Demand Action. In April, this national gun safety group endorsed her during an event in Alexandria, Virginia. Reflecting on her grassroots beginnings, Spanberger shared, "I vividly remember my first Moms Demand Action meeting... I walked in super nervous." If elected, she vows to sign legislation banning high-capacity magazines, ghost guns, and preventing individuals with domestic violence convictions from acquiring firearms—all measures previously passed by Virginia's Democratic majority but vetoed by Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin.
Spanberger's unique perspective as a former federal agent and CIA officer informs her stance on gun restrictions, which she argues are pro-law enforcement. "If we are serious about stopping violent criminals, we must prevent them from manufacturing and distributing illegal, untraceable firearms," she stated. With endorsements from local sheriffs, Spanberger is also focusing on issues like fentanyl overdoses, veterans' affairs, and agriculture, aiming to present herself as a moderate policy expert.
On the other side, Winsome Earle-Sears, 61, is positioning herself as a formidable opponent. Criticizing Spanberger's voting record, she pointed to Spanberger's support for the George Floyd Justice In Policing Act and opposition to the Laken Riley Act. "My opponent voted to have criminal, illegal aliens remain in this country," Earle-Sears claimed. As an immigrant from Jamaica and a veteran, she emphasizes her personal story of hard work and success, aiming to resonate with voters seeking the American dream.
Earle-Sears seeks to align herself with the current governor's focus on business development and tax reduction. "Freedom means you keeping as much money that you make in your own pocket," she stated, promising to eliminate the local car tax—a contentious annual personal property tax in Virginia. Despite Democratic resistance to this proposal, Earle-Sears argues that the state has sufficient funds to support such tax relief.
Political analysts currently give Spanberger a slight edge due to Virginia's historical tendency to elect governors from the opposing party of the sitting president. The Trump effect plays a crucial role, particularly given Virginia's high concentration of federal workers who have been antagonized by the Trump administration's policies. Fundraising also favors Spanberger, who has raised nearly $23 million compared to Earle-Sears' $9.2 million.
While some analysts predict a strong Democratic presence in Virginia's future elections, recent data indicates that voter priorities are evolving, potentially benefiting Republicans. The race remains competitive, with high undecided voter rates suggesting an unsettled electorate as the general election approaches. A win for Spanberger could rejuvenate national Democrats after their 2024 losses, providing a significant victory to highlight ahead of the 2026 midterms.
