In a buoyant address to supporters shortly after taking the oath of office in January, President Donald Trump playfully ribbed House Speaker Mike Johnson regarding the number of Republican lawmakers he had appointed for administration posts. These appointments created vacancies that further tightened the GOP’s already slim majority in the House. “He didn’t mind,” Trump teased, as Johnson humorously pantomimed frustration, eliciting laughter from the crowd. However, just two months later, Trump’s light-heartedness has given way to a palpable sense of unease.
During a recent event, Trump expressed concerns about the precarious nature of their majority, stating, “We have a slim margin. We don’t want to take any chances. We don’t want to experiment.” This statement came as his team abruptly withdrew the nomination of Elise Stefanik of New York for the position of United Nations ambassador. Stefanik's unexpected return to Congress coincides with heightened Republican anxiety over two critical special elections in Florida, aimed at filling seats vacated by two more House members previously appointed by Trump.
One of the pivotal races is in Florida’s 6th Congressional District, where a successor is needed for Michael Waltz, the national security adviser. Waltz has become a focal point of White House frustration due to his involvement in a communication mishap involving a Signal chat that inadvertently included a reporter discussing sensitive military plans. The other special election aims to replace former Rep. Matt Gaetz, who was initially considered for the attorney general position but withdrew amid allegations of sexual misconduct and drug use.
Despite Trump winning both Florida districts by over 30 points in the previous election, Republicans are increasingly alarmed, particularly regarding Waltz's former seat. In this race, Democrat Josh Weil has significantly outperformed the Trump-endorsed GOP nominee, outgoing state Senator Randy Fine, raising concerns about the Republican Party's grip on these traditionally secure districts. Weil has managed to out-raise Fine by a staggering ten-to-one margin, a disparity that has sent shockwaves from Florida to Washington.
The stark fundraising discrepancy—Weil's $9.5 million compared to Fine's $1 million—has led to intervention from Republican leaders. A top adviser to Trump recently confronted Fine, urging him to intensify his campaign efforts. Additionally, House GOP campaign chief Richard Hudson and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer both advised Fine to “get his sh*t together,” underscoring the gravity of the situation.
The outcome of these elections is critical for the future of Trump’s agenda, which already faces challenges in the House, where Republicans hold a narrow 218-213 majority over Democrats, with four vacancies. While a defeat in Florida is considered unlikely by both parties, it could trigger widespread panic among Republicans. Conversely, even a victory that falls short of expectations could indicate voter discontent with Trump’s second term and provide a boost to a Democratic Party eager to regain control following recent losses.
To mitigate expectations ahead of the elections, Republicans have placed the blame on Fine. His campaign has been riddled with issues, including a history of local controversies and a court-ordered anger management requirement. Fine reported just $93,000 in cash on hand in his preelection Federal Election Commission filing, while also loaning his campaign $400,000. A GOP operative noted, “There’s a lot of frustration. From my perspective, he was already operating as if he were a member of Congress because it’s such a safe district.”
Despite these challenges, Republicans remain cautiously optimistic about retaining both Florida seats. Notably, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has not invested in either special election, indicating a challenging path to victory for their candidates. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries recently made a minimal contribution to Gay Valiant, the Democrat running against Republican Jimmy Patronis to replace Gaetz. However, he refrained from predicting a Democratic win, stating, “What I can say, almost guarantee, is that the Democratic candidate in both of these Florida special elections will significantly overperform.”
The turmoil stemming from the recent House vacancies is an issue Republicans should have anticipated. Since assuming the speakership in 2023, Johnson has struggled to govern his caucus effectively. Although Republicans maintained their majority in the November elections, the Democrats have narrowed the gap significantly. When Trump began appointing House Republicans to top administration posts, Johnson humorously remarked that he had “begged and pleaded with the new president, ‘Enough already.’”
However, the combination of a razor-thin House margin and the historical challenges facing the party in power has become an urgent concern for Republican leaders. By withdrawing Stefanik’s nomination, Republicans are attempting to avoid further complications in a special election for her seat in a state that poses more challenges for the party. Stefanik indicated that the decision was influenced by fears that New York Governor Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, might delay the election date to hinder Republican chances at another vote in Congress.
In her comments to the press, Stefanik emphasized the importance of teamwork and leadership in navigating these challenging political waters. Meanwhile, Republican strategist Scott Jennings stated that the decision was strategically sound, given that Democrats have outperformed Republicans in recent special elections when Trump is not on the ballot. Jennings expressed confidence that Stefanik would have a strong chance of reelection next year.
On the other hand, Democratic adviser Neera Tanden warned that the White House's anxiety about districts Trump overwhelmingly won indicates deeper issues with voter sentiment regarding his administration's early months. Tanden remarked, “The fact that they’re making (Stefanik) do this career face-plant... that’s telling us the ground has really shifted.”
The political landscape is evolving rapidly, and the outcomes of these special elections may serve as a harbinger of the challenges that lie ahead for the Republican Party as they navigate their legislative agenda and the impending 2024 elections.
