History and recent public polling indicate that President Donald Trump’s $3.3 trillion tax bill, which Congress approved on Thursday, could significantly aid Democrats in reclaiming the House during the 2026 midterm elections. This tax bill has garnered a notably negative reception among the public, with a Washington Post-Ipsos poll from June revealing nearly 2-to-1 opposition to its provisions. Despite this unpopularity, there remains a glimmer of hope for Republicans to influence public opinion, as over a third of Americans reported having no opinion on the bill, and two-thirds admitted to hearing little or nothing about it.
As pressure mounts on Republican members in districts with significant Medicaid populations, the implications of Trump’s tax bill become more evident. Trump has repeatedly vowed not to cut Medicaid, misleadingly asserting that the bill merely targets waste, fraud, and abuse within the program. However, nonpartisan estimates predict that at least 17 million Americans could lose their health care coverage as a direct result of the bill’s cuts to Medicaid, the end of subsidies for health insurance under the Affordable Care Act, and other Republican initiatives. This scenario presents a substantial liability for vulnerable Republicans, such as Rep. David G. Valadao from California’s Central Valley, which boasts one of the highest concentrations of Medicaid recipients in the nation.
Valadao, along with over a dozen other House Republicans from competitive districts, voiced concerns about the Medicaid cuts in the Senate version of the bill. Yet, they ultimately voted in favor of it on Thursday. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is already targeting these representatives due to the impending cuts, which are set to take effect in 2027. In an impassioned speech on the Senate floor, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina) criticized the Medicaid cuts, effectively crafting campaign ads for Democrats. “What do I tell 663,000 people in two years or three years when President Trump breaks his promise by pushing them off Medicaid?” he questioned. Tillis subsequently announced he would not seek reelection after facing threats from Trump regarding a primary challenge for his dissenting stance.
Billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, who has invested an estimated $288 million to support Trump and other Republican candidates for the 2024 election, has emerged as a vocal opponent of the tax bill. Musk has threatened to retaliate against Republican members who back the bill, asserting that they are exacerbating the deficit and failing to uphold their commitment to reduce spending. “They will lose their primary next year if it is the last thing I do on this Earth,” he declared in a recent post on X. Furthermore, Musk has hinted at the possibility of establishing a new political party that genuinely represents the middle 80%, though it remains uncertain how much of his wealth he will allocate to challenging Republicans who endorse the bill.
During the 2024 campaign trail, Trump committed to abolishing taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security. Although Trump will not be on the ballot in 2026, some voters may recognize his party for incorporating elements of these policies into the tax bill. Despite Trump’s misleading claims regarding the elimination of taxes on Social Security, the bill does include a $6,000 deduction for seniors, stemming from Trump’s campaign promise. Unfortunately, this provision will not benefit millions of low-income seniors who lack sufficient tax liability to utilize the deduction.
In swing states like Nevada, working-class voters, particularly those in the hospitality sector, have frequently cited Trump’s promises regarding taxes on tips and overtime as influential in their inclination to support him. By partially fulfilling these promises, Republicans may bolster their chances in three fiercely contested House seats in Nevada, where both provisions are scheduled to phase out by the end of December 2028.
For years, Republican lawmakers, including Young Kim, who represents parts of California’s Orange, San Bernardino, and Riverside counties, and Michael Lawler, who serves a suburban district north of New York City, have fought to increase the cap on state and local tax deductions (SALT). This provision allows taxpayers to deduct state and local tax payments from their federal tax liabilities. A group of House Republicans advocating for high-tax states worked diligently to raise the deduction limit from the current $10,000 to $40,000 for households earning under $500,000, which they claim is a significant win for their constituents.
Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (New Jersey), along with Kim and Lawler, expressed that this change represents a substantial benefit for taxpayers, as they will experience a noticeable tax cut when filing returns next April.
In the upcoming elections, Sen. Susan Collins (Maine), the most vulnerable Senate Republican, voted against the tax bill, potentially enhancing her bipartisan image in a state that former Vice President Kamala Harris won in the previous election. Another Senate seat that Democrats are keen to capture next year is in North Carolina, where Tillis—who opposed the bill—is not seeking reelection. Democrats might leverage Tillis’s criticisms against the Republican nominee for the open seat, particularly if that candidate is a House Republican who supported the bill.
Furthermore, Senate Republicans who backed the bill could face scrutiny in competitive races across states like Texas, Iowa, Ohio, and Alaska. The political ramifications of this tax bill may extend beyond the 2026 elections, as the Medicaid provisions won’t take effect until after the midterms, allowing Democrats to target Senators like Ted Budd (North Carolina) and Ron Johnson (Wisconsin) if they seek reelection in 2028.
