In a significant setback for the Republican party, the Senate parliamentarian has ruled that a crucial proposal aimed at shifting some costs of food stamps from the federal government to state governments would violate Senate rules. This proposal was a key aspect of the GOP's efforts to achieve savings in their tax and spending cut bill. While the parliamentarian's rulings are advisory in nature, they are seldom disregarded, making this a critical moment for the Republican leadership as they scramble to secure enough support for President Donald Trump's legislative agenda.
The ruling comes just days before voting is expected to commence on Trump's package, which the President hopes to have enacted before the Fourth of July. The loss of this proposal is anticipated to be a significant financial blow to the Republicans, who had counted on saving tens of billions of dollars from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) to offset the costs associated with their ambitious $4.5 trillion tax breaks plan.
Despite this setback, the parliamentarian did allow a provision that imposes new work requirements for older Americans, up to age 65, to qualify for food stamp assistance. Senator Amy Klobuchar, a Minnesota Democrat and the leading member of the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Committee, stated, “We will keep fighting to protect families in need. The parliamentarian has made it clear that Senate Republicans cannot use their partisan budget to shift major nutrition assistance costs to the states, which would lead to significant cuts.”
In response to the ruling, Senator John Boozman, the committee chairman and a Republican from Arkansas, mentioned that his team is exploring alternative options that align with Senate rules. The goal is to ensure that SNAP continues to serve those who genuinely require assistance while also being accountable to taxpayers. The parliamentarian's decision adds to a series of obstacles that threaten the passage of the GOP's extensive legislative package.
The proposed legislation, which has faced unified opposition from Democrats, is currently undergoing revisions in the Senate after being approved by the House on a party-line vote last month. The overarching aim of this multitrillion-dollar package is to extend tax cuts from Trump's first term, which are set to expire if Congress does not take action. Furthermore, it introduces new tax initiatives that include eliminating taxes on tips and overtime pay.
To offset the anticipated loss in tax revenue, the Republicans have proposed substantial cutbacks to federal Medicaid, healthcare, and food programs, amounting to nearly $1 trillion. Additionally, the package would increase national security spending by approximately $350 billion, which includes funding for Trump's controversial mass deportations, facing significant public protests.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has estimated that the House-approved package would add at least $2.4 trillion to the national deficit over the next decade, resulting in an additional 10.9 million individuals losing health care coverage and more than 3 million people facing reductions or eliminations of their SNAP benefits. The parliamentarian's office is responsible for ensuring that the bill complies with the Byrd Rule, which restricts certain policy matters in the budget reconciliation process currently being utilized.
Late Friday, the parliamentarian issued another ruling indicating that the proposal to have states assume more of the food stamp costs would violate the Byrd Rule. Many lawmakers expressed concerns that states would struggle to accommodate this new burden, potentially denying access to SNAP benefits for over 40 million Americans. Initially, the CBO projected around $128 billion in savings from the House's proposal, but estimates for the Senate’s modified version remain undisclosed.
With the parliamentarian's recent rulings, Republican leaders are faced with several choices: revise their proposals to comply with Senate rules, remove them entirely, or risk facing a challenge during floor voting that would necessitate a 60-vote threshold to overcome—likely an insurmountable barrier in a divided chamber with Democrats staunchly opposing the overall package.
The parliamentarian's latest guidance also indicated that provisions making certain immigrants ineligible for food stamps would violate Senate rules, alongside several measures from the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee. As the legislative process unfolds, critical rulings from the parliamentarian will continue to shape the direction of this contentious bill. Among the most anticipated decisions is an assessment of the GOP's approach of utilizing "current policy" instead of "current law" to gauge potential impacts on the nation’s deficits.
As the Senate continues to deliberate, the future of Trump's tax and spending cut bill hangs in the balance, reflecting the complexities and challenges inherent in modern legislative processes.
