The Republican Party is encountering significant hurdles in pushing forward President Donald Trump's tax, immigration, national defense, and energy agenda. As Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson is striving to unify his slender majority, the possibility of reaching a consensus seems remote, lawmakers report.
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) plans to present a budget resolution for a floor vote on Tuesday. However, he faces resistance from swing-district Republicans concerned about cuts to social safety net benefits and fiscal hawks who argue that the proposed $2 trillion in spending cuts do not sufficiently address federal spending.
The proposed legislation aims to initiate the reconciliation process, a legislative strategy to circumvent a Democratic Senate filibuster. However, the conflicting demands have placed Speaker Johnson in a difficult position, potentially stalling Trump's legislative plans.
Tuesday's vote represents another critical test for Republicans, who have been embroiled in spending disputes for nearly two years. The GOP-controlled Senate is considering a two-step approach to pass Trump's agenda through a pair of reconciliation bills, which Johnson views as a contingency plan.
The comprehensive legislative package, endorsed by Trump and dubbed the “big, beautiful bill,” contains contradicting demands, leaving lawmakers uncertain about the way forward. Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Arizona), a swing-district Republican, expressed his indecision due to his district's reliance on Medicaid.
The expiration of major portions of Trump's 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act by the end of 2025 poses the risk of a tax rate increase for most taxpayers if Congress fails to act. Extending these provisions could add approximately $5 trillion to the national debt over a decade, per congressional estimates.
Trump has instructed Republicans to incorporate new, costly tax policies in the bill, such as eliminating taxes on tips, Social Security benefits, and overtime wages, and increasing the cap on state and local tax deductions. This package could potentially add $11.25 trillion over ten years to the U.S.’s existing $36.2 trillion debt, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
House committee leaders are seeking spending cuts to offset costs. The budget resolution mandates committees to suggest new spending or cuts, though specific policies remain at the committees' discretion.
The House Energy and Commerce Committee, responsible for Medicare and Medicaid budgets, received instructions to slash at least $880 billion from the national debt over ten years, achievable only through significant overhauls or benefit reductions in public health insurance programs.
Trump, in a Fox News interview, asserted that Republicans would not cut benefits for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, which collectively account for about $3.2 trillion of the nation's $6.75 trillion total spending in the 2024 fiscal year. The GOP also vowed not to cut the $825 billion defense budget for fiscal 2024, with plans to increase defense spending by $100 billion over a decade.
Concerns persist regarding the budget resolution's ability to address deficits without aggressive spending cuts. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), a leading budget hawk, expressed skepticism but remained open to supporting Johnson's bill for the opportunity to explore further spending cuts.
Between eight and ten House Republicans facing tight reelection races have indicated a potential rejection of Johnson’s proposal due to Medicaid cuts, according to lawmakers familiar with the discussions.
Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-New Jersey), a former Democrat, engaged with Trump to emphasize the importance of maintaining Medicaid benefits. Van Drew underscored the Republican Party’s transformation into a populist party representing working and blue-collar Americans.
On Monday afternoon, Johnson acknowledged the budget resolution's opposition, stating, “there may be more than one” GOP member planning to vote against it. Despite this, Johnson expressed confidence in achieving consensus, urging collective prayer for the high-stakes decision.
Senate Republicans expressed optimism about their House colleagues’ efforts. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) conveyed hope for success, acknowledging the narrow margins and numerous complexities at play.
