In two deep-red House districts in Florida, Republicans experienced lower-than-expected margins while securing safe seats left vacant by “America First” figures. Their victories came only after deploying national and state reinforcements, including former President Donald Trump himself, to rally support. Meanwhile, in Wisconsin, the GOP faced a significant setback in a record-breaking expensive Supreme Court race. With the influence of Elon Musk dominating the election, liberal judge Susan Crawford achieved a notable 9-point victory over Trump’s endorsed candidate, Brad Schimel.
“I’m honestly shocked. I thought we had it in the bag,” expressed Pam Van Handel, Chair of the Republican Party of Wisconsin’s Outagamie County. She believed Musk would be an asset for the election. “People love Trump, but maybe they don’t love everybody he supports. Maybe I have blinders on,” she added. Rohn W. Bishop, the mayor of Waupun, Wisconsin, and former chair of the Republican Party of Fond du Lac County, noted that the Supreme Court race “throws up a bunch of warning signs for the midterm election.”
Bishop reflected on Musk's involvement, stating, “I thought maybe Elon coming could turn these people to go out and vote.” However, he concluded that Musk may have inadvertently mobilized more voters against Schimel. The Democrats framed the Wisconsin election as a referendum on both Trump and Musk, and the results led to jubilation among Democratic leaders. “It’s time for them to walk away from this unelected, unpopular, unhinged, and un-American billionaire puppet master,” declared Hakeem Jeffries, House Minority Leader.
In a statement celebrating the election outcome, Chuck Schumer, Senate Minority Leader, praised Wisconsin voters for sending a “decisive message” to Musk and Trump by rejecting an extreme Republican candidate for the Supreme Court, affirming that “our democracy is not for sale.” Musk and his affiliated groups invested approximately $20 million into the election, employing controversial tactics, such as offering $1 million checks to Republican voters and paying individuals to sign a petition against “activist” judges. Musk described the race as “a super big deal,” emphasizing its potential impact on “the entire destiny of humanity.”
Following Schimel’s defeat, Trump took to Truth Social to promote a ballot measure aimed at enshrining voter ID laws into Wisconsin’s constitution as a “BIG WIN FOR REPUBLICANS, MAYBE THE BIGGEST WIN OF THE NIGHT.” Notably, Trump did not mention the significant loss in the Supreme Court race that he had been actively encouraging voters to participate in. Other Republicans attempted to distance the loss from Trump, asserting instead that it reflected broader issues within the Republican Party in Wisconsin.
Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) emphasized, “First and foremost, this is not a referendum on Donald Trump. It’s a referendum on the Republican Party in Wisconsin.” R.J. Hybben, with the State Federation of Wisconsin College Republicans, acknowledged the “results” weren’t “great,” but claimed, “I don’t think Elon hurt.” He attributed the Democratic advantage in special elections to a more educated voter base that is more likely to participate in off-year elections.
For the moment, Republicans can breathe a sigh of relief that Democrats are not closer to overtaking the House majority. However, they fell short of Trump’s victory margins in both states from the previous November. In the race to fill the seat of embattled National Security Adviser Mike Waltz in Florida’s 6th Congressional District, Trump-endorsed Republican Randy Fine achieved a decisive 14-point victory against Democrat Josh Weil, who had significantly out-fundraised Fine due to small-dollar donations from outside the state. Yet, Fine’s performance was markedly lower than Trump’s own victory in the same district just four months prior.
In the Panhandle, Republican Jimmy Patronis secured a 15-point win over Democrat Gay Valimont, garnering around 57 percent of the votes. However, in Florida’s 1st District, no Republican has won with less than 64 percent since 2001. Trump viewed these races as crucial assessments of his party’s ongoing progress, stating that the election results would help determine whether the radical left would halt congressional progress.
Trump's announcement to withdraw Elise Stefanik’s nomination for U.N. ambassador raised further concerns within the party. Stefanik had comfortably won her red New York district by over 24 points in November. Trump stated on Truth Social, “With a very tight Majority, I don’t want to take a chance on anyone else running for Elise’s seat.” The special elections unfolded just before a significant announcement from Trump regarding an array of tariffs his administration branded as the country’s “liberation day,” although economists warned these could negatively impact the U.S. economy.
Wisconsin Democrats believe they may have discovered an effective strategy for upcoming midterm elections by leveraging Musk's influence against him. They framed the race as showcasing Musk’s undue sway over the country, labeling him a “special government employee” often seen alongside Trump. Notably, Musk's approval ratings consistently lag behind Trump’s, compelling the president to defend his senior adviser amid growing criticism from Democrats, who have branded Musk as an unelected “oligarch.”
“He’s becoming electoral poison,” stated Evan Roth Smith, a Democratic pollster, highlighting the growing sentiment among Democrats. “The Democratic Party is going to make Elon a central issue in its messaging, as it should, and Democrats are getting better at focusing on what matters to voters, which is the threat he poses to entitlements.”
