François Bayrou has been ousted in a confidence vote after just nine months as Prime Minister, leading to the collapse of his minority government and throwing France into a significant political crisis. At 74 years old, Bayrou is set to hand his resignation to President Emmanuel Macron, his long-term centrist ally, on Tuesday morning. This development presents Macron with the daunting task of appointing his third prime minister within a single year, marking the fifth such appointment since he began his second term in 2022.
The confidence vote concluded with 364 deputies casting their votes against Bayrou, while only 194 expressed their confidence in his government. In a last-ditch effort to secure support, Bayrou had called for the vote himself, emphasizing the need for backing from parliament to implement austerity measures aimed at reducing France’s public debt. In his speech to parliament prior to the vote, he articulated that France was facing a dire situation characterized by an “inexorable swamp of debt” and stressed the necessity of finding a “compromise” on the budget.
Bayrou warned that without some “minimal” understanding and consensus in the divided parliament, “government action will be destined to fail.” He faced intense criticism from various opposition leaders, ranging from the left to the far right. When confronted with hostile remarks, Bayrou stated, “I won’t respond to insults,” highlighting that the prevailing atmosphere of verbal “violence and contempt” among politicians was detrimental to democracy.
Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally’s parliamentary group, declared that Bayrou's resignation marked “the end of the agony of a phantom government.” Despite her recent legal troubles, including a conviction for embezzlement, she urged President Macron to call for a parliamentary election immediately, even if it meant she could not contest her seat in northern France again. Le Pen has appealed her conviction, with an appeal trial set to commence in January.
President Macron, who previously surprised the political landscape with a snap election that resulted in a parliament divided into three blocs—left, center, and far right—has shown reluctance to call for another election. With the far right leading in polling, a new election could potentially replicate the current hung parliament situation.
Politicians from the left, who secured the most seats in last year’s election but did not reach an absolute majority, have suggested that Macron appoint a prime minister from their ranks. During the debate on Monday, Boris Vallaud labeled Macron as “a defeated president,” holding him accountable for “impoverishing the poor and enriching the rich.” Socialist MP Vallaud criticized Bayrou’s decision to initiate the confidence vote, describing it as “not an act of courage, but a cop-out.”
Mathilde Panot, a member of the left-wing party La France Insoumise, remarked that Bayrou had been “severely beaten” and noted that with only a third of parliament supporting him, Macron’s economic policies lacked a solid foundation. She called for Macron’s resignation, a prospect the president has consistently ruled out.
As the head of state with authority over foreign policy and national security, Macron has the power to appoint a new prime minister to manage domestic affairs. However, the absence of an absolute majority in the national assembly has created a political deadlock, complicating budget discussions and leaving the new prime minister vulnerable to a similar fate as Bayrou.
On Wednesday, France is expected to witness a series of protest actions organized by a movement known as “Block Everything,” which could result in the shutdown of roads, schools, and businesses, followed by public sector strikes. The immediate priority for Macron is to appoint a prime minister capable of steering through a budget for 2026.
Bayrou's unpopular proposal for a €44 billion (£38 billion) budget cut and austerity measures aimed at alleviating France’s public debt is now likely to be abandoned, along with his contentious suggestion to eliminate two public holidays. Any incoming government will need to start afresh in addressing these pressing issues.
Bayrou is now the second prime minister to be dismissed since the snap election in June of last year, following the ousting of right-wing leader Michel Barnier after just three months in office. His tenure has been marred by unpopularity, making him the most disliked French prime minister since 1958, primarily due to his controversial budget proposals and perceived inaction.
Additionally, Bayrou's reputation suffered due to his handling of an abuse scandal at the Bétharram private Catholic school, where he had personal ties. A parliamentary inquiry found that he failed to act against physical and sexual abuse during his tenure as education minister from 1993 to 1997. Although Bayrou claimed he “hidden nothing,” his responses to the inquiry have alienated even some of his centrist allies.
Violette Spillebout, a northern politician who co-chaired the parliamentary inquiry, abstained from the confidence vote in frustration over Bayrou’s comments that the inquiry was merely a “political tribune.” She expressed that his remarks were “an insult to victims,” further illustrating the political turmoil surrounding Bayrou's administration.
