The political landscape in Israel is notably shifting as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu maneuvers through a precarious situation. His leadership has gained a semblance of stability due to Israel's aggressive military campaign against Iran's nuclear facilities and its leadership. However, analysts suggest that to maintain public support, Netanyahu must demonstrate that this military operation is yielding results and avoid a prolonged conflict.
During a recent address in Bat Yam, Netanyahu emphasized the existential nature of the struggle, stating, “We are here because we are in the midst of an existential struggle, that all Israeli citizens understand.” This statement came shortly after a tragic incident where an overnight barrage of ballistic missiles from Iran resulted in the deaths of ten individuals. Rescue workers were seen searching through the debris, highlighting the immediate impact of these attacks on Israeli citizens.
Israel finds itself embroiled in its most lethal and direct confrontation with Iran, a situation that has been debated for decades. Both Israel and the United States have long warned that Tehran is advancing towards nuclear weapon capabilities, despite Iran's insistence that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. The recent attacks have united many Israelis, although not necessarily around Netanyahu, as public protests against his hard-line government have been temporarily halted due to emergency security measures.
The escalation with Iran came on the heels of a tumultuous political period for Netanyahu, who recently faced a significant threat to his coalition government regarding the military enlistment of ultra-Orthodox men. The political discourse surrounding these issues has been overshadowed by the urgent need for security following the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas, an Iranian-backed group.
Opinion polls indicate a consensus among Israelis that Iran must be contained, as it poses a direct threat to national security. However, there is division regarding the best course of action and the necessity of coordination with the U.S. Many critics within Israel's security establishment have urged decisive action against Iran, especially considering the weakening of its regional proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon due to Israeli military operations.
Recent developments have underscored the urgency of addressing Iran's nuclear ambitions. A United Nations watchdog reported that Iran is in breach of its nonproliferation obligations for the first time in two decades, with estimates suggesting it is stockpiling substantial amounts of highly enriched uranium. Israeli assessments indicate that Iran may have enough enriched uranium for up to nine nuclear bombs, raising alarms about its intentions and capabilities.
In a televised statement, Netanyahu declared that Iran is mere months away from achieving nuclear capability. Analysts point out that this situation may have provided Netanyahu with an opportunity to reshape his legacy, which has been marred by the recent surprise attacks and his handling of the ongoing Gaza war. While many Israelis support his decision to confront Iran, they will be closely monitoring how the conflict unfolds and whether he effectively collaborates with the U.S., Israel’s most crucial ally.
Political analysts like Jonathan Rynhold from Bar-Ilan University suggest that while Netanyahu’s position appears strengthened, the outcomes of this conflict will have significant implications for both his political future and Israel's security landscape. Rynhold emphasized that it’s not solely about tactical victories; there is also a pressing need for strategic and diplomatic triumphs.
The current military actions have garnered praise from Netanyahu’s political opponents, including former leaders like Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, who have publicly supported Israel's strikes against Iran. Meanwhile, discussions about the Iran nuclear negotiations have been complicated by the recent escalation. Former President Donald Trump has shifted his stance, initially advocating for diplomatic resolutions but later commending Israel's military actions.
As the conflict with Iran unfolds, the implications may extend beyond Netanyahu to affect the entire Israeli political system. Analysts warn that now is not the time to predict long-term political outcomes, as the situation remains fluid, and military operations are still in progress. Political scientist Yohanan Plesner notes that this could be a pivotal moment in Israel's history with significant repercussions for national and regional dynamics.
