Exit polls from Japan's recent election indicate that the ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, is poised to lose its majority in the upper house, significantly increasing political pressure on the Prime Minister. Voters took to the polls on Sunday for a highly contested upper house election, driven largely by public dissatisfaction over rising prices and the looming threat of US tariffs.
Having already lost its majority in Japan's more influential lower house, a defeat in the upper house would critically diminish the coalition's capacity to influence policymaking. This situation could force Ishiba to resign less than a year after his election. The ruling coalition needs to secure at least 50 seats in the 248-seat upper chamber to maintain control. An exit poll conducted by public broadcaster NHK estimates that the coalition may win between 32 and 51 seats.
Earlier surveys had indicated that Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner Komeito were at significant risk of losing their majority, especially after the coalition's recent setbacks in the lower house. On Sunday, NHK reported that it could be challenging for the ruling coalition to keep its majority intact.
Despite the negative projections for his coalition, Ishiba remained resolute during a news conference held at his party headquarters in Tokyo. He emphasized the importance of ongoing tariff negotiations with the United States, stating, “We must never ruin these negotiations.”
In this election, half of the seats in the upper chamber were contested, with elected officials serving six-year terms. If the coalition ends up with fewer than 46 seats, it will mark its most disappointing performance since its establishment in 1999. The LDP, which has governed Japan almost uninterrupted since 1955—with frequent leadership changes—faces mounting challenges as voters express their frustration with Ishiba's leadership.
This growing dissatisfaction is fueled by Japan's economic struggles, including a cost-of-living crisis, trade negotiations with the United States, and a series of political scandals that have plagued the LDP in recent years. Inflation concerns, especially regarding the price of rice, have further exacerbated public discontent.
The last three LDP premiers who lost their majority in the upper house stepped down within two months, and analysts predict a similar outcome if the coalition experiences a significant loss in this election. Such a scenario would likely create opportunities for a leadership challenge from other prominent LDP figures, including Sanae Takaichi, who finished second to Ishiba in last year's leadership election, Takayuki Kobayashi, a former economic security minister, and Shinjiro Koizumi, the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.
In conclusion, a potential change in leadership within the ruling party could unleash political turbulence and destabilize Japan's government at a crucial time in US-Japan trade negotiations. The outcome of this election will be pivotal not only for the LDP but also for Japan's economic and political landscape moving forward.
