On Wednesday evening, House Republicans appeared to be on the verge of delivering President Donald Trump his first legislative victory of his second term. However, progress came to a halt as ultraconservative and moderate lawmakers stood firm against a pivotal tax and immigration bill. This ambitious $3.4 trillion legislation aims not only to extend tax cuts from Trump’s inaugural term but also to fulfill several campaign promises, including the elimination of income taxes on tips and the enhancement of border patrol and immigration enforcement capabilities.
Throughout Wednesday, lawmakers engaged in intense negotiations, moving between discussions with party leaders, Trump administration officials, and the President himself at the White House. As the night transitioned into Thursday morning, House Speaker Mike Johnson was still endeavoring to persuade nine lawmakers to support the advancement of the bill. The prolonged deliberations led to leaders keeping two crucial votes open for hours, a clear sign of the dysfunction within the Republican conference and the desperate backroom dealings aimed at advancing Trump’s agenda.
“I’ll keep it open as long as it takes to make sure we’ve got everybody here and accounted for,” Johnson stated during an appearance on Fox News’s “Hannity.” Alongside Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minnesota), Johnson actively engaged with fellow Republicans during the rule vote, engaging in what appeared to be tense discussions. Four Republicans voted against the rule, while nine others chose to withhold their votes.
As the vote dragged on, resistance remained palpable among Republicans. Fiscal hawks expressed apprehension regarding the bill’s soaring costs, while moderate conservatives voiced their unease over the Senate’s version, which proposes even deeper cuts to Medicaid. “There is about half a trillion dollars over the House framework. I think there are a number of people concerned, including myself,” remarked House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-Texas). “We don’t want to add billions of dollars to the debt that our kids will struggle to repay.”
Despite some lawmakers being persuaded to support the bill, several remained steadfastly opposed. Johnson’s margin for error is slim; he can only afford to lose three Republicans if all lawmakers are present to vote on sending the One Big Beautiful Bill to Trump by the President’s arbitrary deadline. Many dissenters are members of the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus, although some moderates are also dissatisfied with the Senate’s product. “It’ll be ongoing meetings for hours. The vote is going to be held up, and they’re going to keep that vote open for as long as it takes,” stated Rep. Ralph Norman (R-South Carolina), a Freedom Caucus member who remains undecided on the bill.
While Republicans largely maintain confidence that the bill will ultimately pass, many lawmakers still require convincing. Rep. Greg Murphy (North Carolina), a conservative with concerns about the Senate bill’s substantial Medicaid cuts, expressed hopes of discussing the matter further with the President. “We’re stalled,” said Rep. Barry Loudermilk (Georgia) shortly after leaders chose to keep the floor vote open. “I feel that there’s some confidence that this gets done today.”
Some Republicans who had previously wavered appeared to gain clarity following their meetings with Trump. Rep. Jeff Van Drew (New Jersey), a pragmatic conservative, indicated that he is now leaning toward a ‘yes’ vote, thanks to discussions with the President that alleviated his concerns about the bill, especially regarding its restrictions on health care provider taxes. Similarly, Rep. Don Bacon (Nebraska), a moderate who has announced he will not seek reelection, seemed poised to support the bill, citing the importance of making Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent.
The Senate's adjustments have made the legislation significantly more expensive; excluding borrowing costs, the House version is projected to increase the national debt by $2.4 trillion over the next decade, while the Senate bill could escalate it to $3.3 trillion. To offset these costs, the legislation proposes cutting approximately $1 trillion from Medicaid, the federal health insurance program for low-income individuals and people with disabilities, along with reductions to SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program). According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, nearly 12 million individuals could lose health care coverage if the bill is enacted.
Supporters of the bill argue that it is designed to benefit the working-class voters who propelled Trump to victory in the 2016 elections and gave the GOP unified control of Congress. “If we don’t take a different trajectory, these programs will collapse under the economic failures of prior administrations,” Rep. Mike Kennedy (R-Utah) asserted on the House floor. The legislation proposes an increase in the child tax credit and introduces a bonus to the standard deduction for seniors, echoing Trump’s campaign pledge to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits. Additionally, it would create savings accounts for newborns, funded with $1,000 of taxpayer money, and allow buyers of American-made cars to deduct up to $10,000 in car loan interest.
However, despite these populist elements, the measure has been criticized as regressive. According to the Congressional Budget Office's analysis of the House version, the lowest 10% of households could face an average loss of $1,600 per year due to cuts in benefits, while the top 10% of households would see an average gain of $12,000. The legislation would also solidify a trio of corporate tax deductions designed to incentivize companies to invest in research and equipment purchases.
With nearly $170 billion allocated for the Trump administration’s border and immigration policies, this legislation represents one of the most substantial investments in homeland security in recent history. Additionally, approximately $160 billion is earmarked for the Defense Department, in part for Trump’s proposed "Golden Dome" continental missile defense system.
