Recent early voting data suggests that Democratic candidates for governor in New Jersey and Virginia are entering the final weekend of campaigning in a slightly stronger position compared to Vice President Kamala Harris at the same time last year. In New York City, former Governor Andrew Cuomo may be experiencing a more favorable scenario than he did during the primary, but there are indications of heightened engagement from younger voters, a critical demographic for candidate Zohran Mamdani. CNN’s experts have analyzed the pre-election voting data in these three locations, comparing it to the upcoming elections in New Jersey and Virginia to reflect the shifts in early voting patterns over the last four years.
While early voting analysis can provide valuable insights into which candidates might be well positioned as Election Day approaches on November 4, it remains challenging to predict the exact support for candidates or their performance on the actual voting day, when many ballots will be cast.
In New Jersey, the Democratic Party has demonstrated a higher turnout rate than their Republican counterparts in both mail-in and early in-person voting. This puts Democratic candidate for governor, US Rep. Mikie Sherrill, in a more favorable position than Harris was at this time last year, when she ultimately won the state by approximately 6 points. As of the end of Thursday, registered Democrats led Republicans in mail ballot returns by over 41 points, a slight improvement over last year’s 39-point gap at the same time. Notably, Democrats now also hold a nearly 2-point lead in in-person early voting, contrasting with last year when they trailed by 2 points.
The significance of mail ballots has increased, representing a larger portion of the pre-election vote than in previous years. Consequently, registered Democrats now constitute a more substantial share of the total pre-election electorate compared to this time last year.
This demographic skew towards older voters contrasts with the primary results, where about 48% of Democratic voters were 50 or older, and 18% were ages 18-29, based on data from L2. Polls indicate that younger voters overwhelmingly support Mamdani, while Cuomo, who is running as an independent, has a narrower lead among older voters. This year’s turnout is still younger compared to the last mayoral election in 2021, which saw only 9% of voters aged 18 to 29 and 62% aged 50 and older.
Over the past week, the daily turnout among younger Democrats has increased. Initially, older voters outnumbered younger ones by about 50 percentage points on the first day of early voting, but this gap has narrowed to below 20 points by the seventh day. Additionally, the geographic distribution of Democratic votes appears more favorable for Cuomo than during the June primary, with turnout strongest in precincts where he performed well and relatively weaker in strong Mamdani areas. The most favorable precincts for Cuomo have cast 125% of their primary early in-person totals, whereas the precincts that favored Mamdani have only cast 85% of their early voting totals. Nevertheless, if the precinct-level voting dynamics from the primary remain constant, these geographic changes alone may not suffice for Cuomo to surpass Mamdani among Democratic early voters.
In Virginia, where voters do not register by party, the geographic breakdown of early votes cast thus far suggests that Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger is in a slightly stronger position heading into the final stretch compared to Harris at the same point last year, when she won Virginia by less than 6 points. Although the geographic distribution of early in-person votes has slightly favored Republicans, the distribution of mail ballots mirrors that of last year. However, mail ballots—where Democrats typically perform better—comprise a larger share of the pre-election vote this year (24%) compared to last year (21%). This trend results in a more Democratic-leaning geographic breakdown of the combined pre-election vote compared to the same point in the 2024 election.
As of Thursday, counties that Trump won last year are averaging 61% of their in-person votes cast at the equivalent point last year, while counties that supported Harris are at just over 57%. The counties performing the worst are those where Trump secured over 75% of the vote, currently at just 54% of the in-person votes they had cast at this time last year.
