In a significant turn of events, the Democrats have clinched a critical judicial election in Wisconsin, marking a key political moment with unprecedented financial backing and national scrutiny. This election has been viewed as a referendum not only on the political climate influenced by figures like Elon Musk but also on the broader agenda of former President Donald Trump. Alongside the judicial victory, Democrats also triumphed in the state schools superintendent race; however, Republicans celebrated a win concerning a voter ID measure. In contrasting developments, Florida Republicans secured two special elections by substantial margins. With the 2026 midterm elections just 19 months away, here are five crucial insights drawn from these elections.
The recent election results signal potential challenges for Trump and the Republican Party. Liberal judge Susan Crawford has successfully maintained a Democratic lean in the state Supreme Court, winning amidst a staggering $70 million in advertising—a record for a judicial race, as reported by ad-tracking firm AdImpact. Notably, approximately $20 million of that funding came from Musk's contributions. This election was particularly significant in a state that narrowly favored Trump by just one point in the previous presidential election. Crawford's victory, coming in at a 10-point margin with over 95% of votes counted, reflects shifting sentiments among voters.
In contrast, Republicans achieved victories in two special elections in Florida, winning by an average of 14 points. While these districts are solidly Republican, the margins indicate that Democrats have made notable inroads, particularly in seats formerly held by Trump administration officials. According to Ballotpedia, there are 60 Republican House members who won their elections in 2024 by 15 points or less, which could raise concerns regarding their future prospects following these recent results. The Wall Street Journal editorial board has even termed these outcomes a potential backlash against MAGA policies. It’s essential to interpret off-year election results with caution; while Democrats did secure a judicial seat in 2023, they lost the state in the presidential race. However, these events serve as early warning signs for the GOP and a reminder that voter energy often favors the opposition party during a president's first midterm elections.
The Wisconsin judicial race proved to be a challenging night for Elon Musk, who invested heavily in the campaign. Organizations backed by Musk contributed around $20 million, and he even made a personal appearance in the state, donning a cheese hat and offering $1 million checks to voters. Musk's rhetoric suggested that the fate of humanity hinged on this election, raising the stakes considerably. While Trump may attempt to downplay the significance of Wisconsin's results, opting instead to highlight Florida's successes, the implications of Musk's influence are troubling. His declining favorability ratings, now a net-negative nationally—including in Wisconsin—suggest that his alignment with Trump may be waning. Should Musk's public standing continue to falter, it could be a relief for congressional Republicans, who recently bolstered their majority in Florida.
The internal dynamics of the Democratic Party are increasingly shaped by a desire to combat Trump’s policies, showcasing a divide between fighting back and complacency. The frustration among the Democratic base was evident following Senate leader Chuck Schumer’s decision to allow a GOP spending bill to pass last month. The success of figures like Sen. Cory Booker, who delivered an extended anti-Trump speech lasting over 24 hours, reflects this sentiment. According to Ben Wickler, chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, the crucial distinction within the party is less about ideological differences and more about the willingness to actively engage and fight against Republican policies. This proactive approach was evident in the electoral successes of candidates who opposed restrictions on abortion and supported educational funding.
Both parties invested heavily in these recent elections, acknowledging the challenges of mobilizing voters in off-year contests. The $70 million spent on ads in Wisconsin marks a significant investment, with much of the funding sourced from outside the state. In Florida, the special elections captured substantial attention, especially given the competitive nature of the districts. The Democrat in one race raised nearly $10 million and spent over $8 million, while the Republican counterpart spent less than $1 million. Despite lower turnout in these elections compared to presidential cycles, the realignment of college-educated voters towards the Democratic Party is becoming increasingly influential, particularly in off-year and midterm elections.
Interestingly, the same voters who supported a liberal judge in Wisconsin also overwhelmingly backed a voter ID measure, which has now been enshrined in the state constitution. A recent Pew poll indicated that a remarkable 81% of voters support requiring government-issued photo ID to cast ballots, including a significant 69% of Democrats. This bipartisan support highlights the ongoing relevance of voter ID laws in political discussions and their potential impact on future elections.
