Washington, D.C. - On March 10, 2023, the Republican-controlled U.S. Congress is gearing up to take decisive action aimed at keeping the government funded and preventing a potential partial shutdown that could commence as early as Saturday. This urgency comes in the wake of President Donald Trump's swift initiatives to significantly reduce the size of federal agencies.
The House Republican majority, which stands at a narrow 218-214, has been characterized by internal conflicts, particularly among its hardline members. However, recent signals indicate that these lawmakers are leaning towards supporting a critical funding bill. This legislation aims to maintain government financing at its current levels until September 30, the conclusion of the existing fiscal year.
Speaker Mike Johnson has announced plans for a procedural vote on the funding measure on Monday, with the goal of achieving passage by Tuesday. Proponents argue that it is essential for the House to approve this bill to facilitate Trump's broader agenda, which includes sweeping tax cuts and increased spending on immigration enforcement and military operations. Notably, Trump has publicly endorsed the bill.
A number of Senate Democrats, although they hold the power to block the bill due to the 60-vote filibuster rule, have expressed their willingness to support the legislation. They argue that avoiding a government shutdown is crucial to maintaining stability, particularly given recent staffing cuts impacting over 100,000 federal workers made under Trump's advisory circle, which includes Elon Musk.
The proposed bill encompasses discretionary spending, which covers essential functions like law enforcement and air traffic control. This spending constitutes around a quarter of the federal budget, estimated at approximately $6.75 trillion. This budget also accounts for expenditures related to the Social Security retirement program and over $1 trillion annually on interest payments for the nation's escalating $36 trillion debt.
In this legislative proposal, there is an expected increase in defense spending by about $6 billion, juxtaposed against a decrease in non-defense spending by around $13 billion. Additionally, the bill aims to maintain a freeze of $20 billion in funding for the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), previously established in a stopgap measure from December.
As lawmakers look ahead, they face a much more significant challenge later this year when the self-imposed debt ceiling must be addressed. Failing to do so could lead to a catastrophic default that would have far-reaching implications for the global economy. The last government shutdown, which unfolded over 35 days in late 2018 and early 2019 during Trump's presidency, serves as a stark reminder of the stakes involved.
The ongoing brinkmanship surrounding government funding and the debt ceiling has already impacted the U.S.'s creditworthiness. Two of the three major global credit rating agencies have downgraded the federal government's previously top-tier rating, highlighting the risks associated with legislative standoffs.
Last year, members of the hardline conservative House Freedom Caucus often resisted voting on government funding bills, particularly the short-term measures known as continuing resolutions. However, Trump's endorsement of the current bill appears to have shifted the dynamics, with several members emerging from a recent White House meeting expressing their inclination to support the legislation.
Representative Andy Harris of Maryland, chair of the Freedom Caucus, affirmed that supporting the bill equates to backing Trump. "I am firmly 100% in his corner," he stated to reporters. Similarly, Representative Victoria Spartz of Indiana, who previously opposed the House's budget blueprint for Trump's tax agenda, indicated her support, emphasizing the need for expediency. "I don't think we have time to do anything else. I'm being realistic," she remarked.
In response to inquiries from reporters, Trump acknowledged the possibility of a shutdown but expressed optimism regarding the bill's passage. "It could happen. It shouldn't have happened, and it probably won't. I think the CR is going to get passed. We'll see," he said, referring to the continuing resolution aimed at maintaining government funding.
Should the bill successfully clear the House, it will advance to the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority. To pass, the bill will require support from at least seven Democrats. Moderate Democratic Senator John Fetterman from Pennsylvania has indicated he would not oppose the measure, calling shutdowns "chaos." Likewise, liberal Democratic Senator Ron Wyden from Oregon expressed his support, stating, "Shutdowns are a bad idea. I'm not a shutdown guy."
However, not all Democratic senators are on board. Moderate Senator Elissa Slotkin, who recently delivered her party's rebuttal to Trump's address to Congress, has expressed reservations about supporting a bill that seems to undermine previous congressional directives on spending. "Until I see some assurances that whatever we pass next week is going to ensure that the money is spent the way Congress intends... I'm going to withhold my vote," Slotkin stated during an interview on NBC's Meet the Press.
As the clock ticks down to the potential government shutdown, the fate of this funding bill remains uncertain, hinging on the delicate interplay between Republican hardliners and Democratic moderates in Congress.
