As the pressure mounts from the House GOP, nearly every critical decision regarding tax reform remains unresolved. Lawmakers face pivotal questions about social safety-net spending cuts, appeasing swing-seat lawmakers over essential tax breaks, accounting for the costs of extending existing tax cuts, and determining how many additional tax breaks can be incorporated. North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis voiced his concerns, stating, “How can we be moving quickly when some of those foundational questions haven’t been settled?”
In an effort to break the ongoing deadlock, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to meet this week with GOP leaders and tax writers. Their goal is to reconcile the diverging plans of the two chambers. Currently, both the Senate and House are looking for guidance from each other, resulting in a chicken-and-egg situation that has led to a quiet standoff. This impasse has many Republicans perceiving House Speaker Johnson’s budget goal as overly ambitious, especially since it represents a retreat from his earlier aim of passing a final bill before Easter.
While Senate Republicans are eager to present results from their private discussions before leaving for the April recess, their leadership has refrained from setting specific deadlines or guarantees. Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) commented, “I’d like to have done it yesterday but really I just don’t find it helpful to set timelines,” highlighting the cautious approach taken by the Senate.
This caution stems from a widespread skepticism among GOP senators regarding the House's ability to deliver a bill that aligns with the budget adopted last month, particularly its ambitious goal of achieving $2 trillion in spending cuts. House Republicans are urging their Senate colleagues to simply adopt their proposed budget, but Senate members have made it clear they intend to make modifications.
Adding to the complexity, House Republicans, including Johnson’s tax writers from the Ways and Means Committee, are unwilling to draft a bill until the Senate establishes a fiscal outline. A House GOP lawmaker expressed frustration, saying, “How can we do that without knowing the Senate number?” This sentiment was echoed by a senior aide who remarked, “That’s not how this works.”
Both chambers’ leaders are grappling with unique challenges. Johnson is contending with conservative hard-liners who demand the Senate accept the House budget as is while also pushing for an impeachment fight against judges who have ruled against Trump. Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader John Thune is tasked with resolving intricate tax disputes among his members.
As the GOP navigates these challenges, they are consulting with the nonpartisan parliamentarian regarding the use of a controversial accounting tactic that could effectively nullify the approximately $4 trillion cost associated with extending Trump’s 2017 tax cuts. Thune is also facing rising concerns within his conference regarding the potential impacts of proposed Medicaid cuts.
With frustrations mounting, several months of complex tax discussions lie ahead. Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) remarked after a recent White House meeting, “Talk, talk, talk, talk. Just like the last 10 weeks.” Although many Republicans express optimism about eventually reaching a consensus, a clear plan for how and when that will happen remains elusive, leading to finger-pointing about accountability.
Adding to the complications, numerous rank-and-file House Republicans are urging the Senate to limit their own budget plan, despite leadership calls for the opposite. Vulnerable House members have received reassurances from GOP leaders that the level of Medicaid cuts under the House budget framework would not survive in the Senate. Similar assurances have been made concerning the potential $230 billion in cuts to the nation’s largest anti-hunger program.
House Energy and Commerce Chair Brett Guthrie, whose committee is responsible for making $880 billion in cuts, stated, “We have to have instructions before we can do anything. That’s just the system.” Trump recently approved Medicaid changes during a meeting with Senate Finance Committee members, but any perceived cuts to benefits could incite backlash within the GOP.
On the revenue side, many House tax writers recognize the necessity for the Senate to adjust the House budget blueprint to accommodate additional priorities pushed by the president, including income tax exemptions for tips, overtime, and Social Security benefits. The House Ways and Means Committee recently convened for two days to discuss various tax provisions, employing a card system to express opinions on each proposal.
One of the most persistent issues yet to be addressed is how to satisfy key blue-state Republicans advocating for an expansion of the income tax deduction for state and local taxes. The multitude of unresolved disputes has created a sense of bemusement among lawmakers who are waiting for their leaders—and Trump—to take more decisive action in resolving these matters. As GOP Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky aptly summarized, “Probably what we are going to do is talk to each other to death, stare at each other and then eventually, you know, confuse the issue so much that it takes two months to unravel what we agree to.”
