Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. recently indicated that the measles outbreak in western Texas may be showing signs of slowing down. In a post on social media platform X, Kennedy highlighted the tragic second death linked to the outbreak, which involved an unvaccinated school-aged child. Shortly after, he updated his post to mention that the outbreak's growth curve has been flattening since early March, coinciding with the deployment of reinforcements from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). These reinforcements included the provision of vaccines and other critical medications to local clinics.
Despite Kennedy's optimistic assessment, data from the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) suggests otherwise. Reports indicate that measles cases are on the rise, with an increasing number of counties in western Texas confirming infections. Katherine Wells, director of public health in Lubbock, Texas, stated that officials project a year-long timeline for controlling the outbreak, emphasizing that the situation remains serious. "This is going to be a large outbreak, and we're still seeing an increasing number of cases due to both the spread of the virus and enhanced testing capacity," she warned.
Public health specialists have expressed skepticism regarding Kennedy's claims that the outbreak curve is flattening. They argue that the actual number of cases linked to this outbreak is likely much higher than what is officially reported. Dr. John Brownstein, an epidemiologist and ABC News contributor, noted, "This outbreak is far from under control. Even if the curve begins to flatten, we still face major risks in under-vaccinated communities across the country." He stressed the urgent need for action to prevent widespread transmission of the virus, particularly in areas with low vaccination rates.
As of Tuesday, the DSHS has confirmed 505 measles cases in Texas. Between March 28 and April 4 alone, the DSHS reported 81 new cases, marking one of the highest weekly totals since the outbreak began in late January. The DSHS does not publicly disclose hospitalization rates, but experts believe the number of cases is significantly underreported. Dr. Craig Spencer from the Brown University School of Public Health remarked, "We know that the size of the outbreak has jumped substantially over the past month." ABC News has reached out to obtain the data Kennedy referenced in his statements but has yet to receive a response from the HHS.
There have been two confirmed deaths associated with the Texas measles outbreak, with a third death under investigation in New Mexico. This individual, an unvaccinated adult, tested positive for measles posthumously. Dr. Spencer indicated that statistically, the number of deaths may suggest a higher case count, estimating that there could be around 3,000 cases based on the observed fatalities. He cautioned against complacency, stating, "It's not impossible for there to be three deaths among 500 cases, but statistically, one would expect more cases for that number of deaths."
Dr. Megan Ranney, dean of the Yale School of Public Health, voiced concern over the potential ramifications of declaring that the outbreak has flattened when evidence suggests the opposite. She pointed out that many individuals are avoiding formal medical care and consequently, testing for measles. "There is always a delay in reporting, even when people are tested," Ranney explained. She urged the community to continue taking preventive measures, emphasizing that the MMR vaccine is the most effective way to prevent measles infection.
In a follow-up social media post, Kennedy shared his meetings with families affected by the outbreak and claimed to have spoken with physicians who have treated approximately 300 children in the Mennonite community using aerosolized budesonide and clarithromycin. While these medications have specific applications, public health experts caution that they are not standard treatments for measles. Dr. Spencer remarked, "There is nothing in evidence-based treatment guidelines that supports the use of budesonide or clarithromycin for measles." He acknowledged that while these medications may have broad uses, they are not first-line treatments for measles.
Dr. Peter Marks, former director of the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, reiterated the critical role of the MMR vaccine in preventing measles. He highlighted that the CDC recommends two doses of the MMR vaccine, which is about 93% effective after the first dose and nearly 100% effective after the second dose. Marks argued that vaccination should be as routine as securing a child's car seat, stating, "If you had an 18-month-old, why wouldn't you give that child something that could prevent your child from dying of an infection?"
As the situation in Texas continues to evolve, public health officials are urging communities to remain vigilant and prioritize vaccination to curb the spread of measles. The importance of staying informed and proactive cannot be overstated as the outbreak progresses.
