As the prestigious Oscars ceremony approaches, Hollywood gears up for what is often dubbed the biggest night in the industry. However, this weekend’s box office is expected to be relatively muted, as theaters prepare for the climax of the awards season. Focus Features’ latest release, the underwater thriller “Last Breath,” is projected to open modestly at around $7.3 million.
“Last Breath” made an initial splash by earning approximately $3 million from Friday and preview screenings across 3,018 venues. This survival thriller, which is based on a real-life rescue operation involving deep-sea divers, is directed by Alex Parkinson and features a star-studded cast including Woody Harrelson, Simu Liu, and Finn Cole. The film adapts from Parkinson's own 2019 documentary of the same name, which Focus acquired distribution rights to last summer. Initial reviews have been favorable, and audience sentiment appears positive, with Cinema Score giving it a B+ grade. Focus Features is optimistic that strong word-of-mouth can propel “Last Breath” through its opening weekend and beyond, especially considering that original adult dramas have struggled to capture audience interest in recent years.
Meanwhile, Disney’s “Captain America: Brave New World” is expected to maintain its position at the top of the box office for the third consecutive weekend. Despite experiencing a significant drop in momentum among moviegoers, the superhero film is projected to earn $3.6 million on Friday, marking a 50% decline from its previous week’s daily gross of $7.2 million. This drop is one of the steepest in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, ranking as the third-worst second-weekend decline, trailing behind the poorly received “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” and “The Marvels.” Nevertheless, “Brave New World” is on track to surpass $150 million in domestic earnings by Sunday and may soon outgross “Eternals,” another rarity among Marvel disappointments, which grossed $164 million.
The current projections suggest that “Brave New World” will become the 32nd highest-grossing MCU movie in North America, with 35 total entries. To avoid landing in the bottom five for the franchise, it must surpass the 2011 original, “Captain America: The First Avenger,” which earned $176 million.
In the third position, Neon’s horror comedy “The Monkey” is also experiencing a sharp decline in its second weekend, following a lukewarm reception that garnered it a C+ grade on Cinema Score. The indie film earned an estimated $1.8 million on Friday, with projections of around $6.2 million for the entire weekend, reflecting a 56% drop. This decline is steeper compared to director Osgood Perkins’ previous release, “Longlegs,” which also received a C+ grade but only dropped 46% in its second weekend. Despite its challenges, “The Monkey” is well-positioned, having been produced for approximately $10 million and likely to cross $24 million in domestic gross by the end of the weekend.
In fourth place, Sony's release of “Paddington in Peru” has continued to perform well, earning an additional $970,000 on Friday and projecting a total of around $4.5 million for its third weekend. The film is currently pacing slightly ahead of the beloved bear's previous installment, “Paddington 2,” which was released in 2017. By Sunday, “Paddington in Peru” should reach a total domestic gross of approximately $31 million.
Finally, rounding out the top five is Universal’s “Dog Man,” which continues to attract audiences despite its availability as a premium digital rental and being over a month into its theatrical run. The DreamWorks Animation caper earned around $860,000 on Friday and is projecting to finish the weekend with about $4 million. With its current trajectory, “Dog Man” may exceed $83 million in total domestic earnings by the end of the frame.
