A chaotic blue alien and the thrilling escapades of Tom Cruise have propelled the Memorial Day weekend box office to unprecedented heights, providing much-needed relief to theater owners who are still grappling with the aftereffects of the pandemic. This year, Walt Disney Co.'s live-action adaptation of "Lilo & Stitch" dominated the box office, earning an impressive $183 million during its opening weekend in the U.S. and Canada, according to studio estimates. This remarkable figure secures its position as the biggest Memorial Day weekend opener in history, surpassing "Top Gun: Maverick", which debuted with $160.5 million in 2022.
Following closely in second place was Paramount Pictures and Skydance Media's "Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning," which grossed $77 million domestically. Other films completing the top five included "Final Destination Bloodlines," "Thunderbolts," and "Sinners." Both new studio blockbusters also made waves internationally, with "Lilo & Stitch" amassing a global total of $341.7 million, while the latest Mission: Impossible installment garnered $190 million worldwide.
Chris Aronson, president of domestic distribution at Paramount, commented on the box office resurgence: “This is just an extraordinary accomplishment after so many people were willing to write off the theatrical business. The box office thrives when there’s something for everyone in the marketplace, and that’s precisely what we witnessed over this holiday weekend.” Total box office revenue for the Memorial Day weekend is projected to reach an astounding $325 million in the U.S. and Canada, marking it as the largest Memorial Day weekend ever based on non-inflation-adjusted estimates from Comscore. The previous record was set in 2013 with a total of $314 million, buoyed by films like "Fast & Furious 6" and "The Hangover Part III."
Historically, Memorial Day has been a major weekend for moviegoing, serving as a springboard into the bustling summer season. However, the pandemic and the dual writers' and actors' strikes in 2023 have made it a more unreliable indicator of theatrical success. “The calendar thinned out a little bit, particularly post-pandemic,” noted Eric Handler, a media and entertainment analyst at Roth Capital. “You just didn’t have the depth that you used to have. But it’s encouraging to see two significant event movies this year.”
The diverse appeal of "Lilo & Stitch" and "Mission: Impossible" catered to different audiences, effectively reducing competition between similar films. Historically, box office performance improves with a variety of genres available to viewers. The production budget for "Lilo & Stitch" was reported at $100 million, while "Mission: Impossible" had a staggering budget of $300 million to $400 million, making it one of the most expensive films ever produced.
The impressive showing during the Memorial Day weekend adds to a robust spring box office season. Films like Warner Bros. Pictures’ "A Minecraft Movie" and Ryan Coogler’s "Sinners" have contributed to a domestic theatrical revenue of $875 million in April, nearly matching the pre-pandemic average of $886 million for the same month from 2015-2019. May introduced additional blockbusters such as Disney and Marvel Studios’ "Thunderbolts" and Warner Bros. Pictures’ "Final Destination Bloodlines," which have sustained steady business in theaters.
Kimberly Owczarski, an associate professor at Texas Christian University, remarked, “This spring has been so good for the box office; it usually indicates a strong summer. Last year, we didn’t have those big tentpole films in April and early May that typically kickstart the season. However, with this year's lineup, audiences are eager to return to theaters.”
In stark contrast, last year's Memorial Day weekend saw a dismal gross of just $132 million, marking the worst performance in nearly 30 years. Films like "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" and "The Garfield Movie" only managed to collect about $30 million each during that weekend, highlighting a significant disparity compared to the blockbuster success of this year. The slow start to last summer's movie season left distributors and exhibitors anxious, and it wasn't until the release of Disney-Pixar’s "Inside Out 2" in mid-June that the box office began to recover.
This year, however, a strong slate of familiar blockbusters is expected to enhance the overall theatrical landscape. Anticipated releases include Sony Pictures’ "Karate Kid: Legends" at the end of the month, followed by Lionsgate’s "John Wick" spin-off "Ballerina" in early June. Other notable upcoming films include Universal Pictures’ live-action adaptation of "How to Train Your Dragon," "Jurassic World Rebirth," Disney-Pixar’s original animated film "Elio," and Warner Bros.’ "Superman" and Disney and Marvel Studios’ "The Fantastic Four: First Steps." This robust lineup has fueled optimism for a stronger theatrical business throughout the year.
Analysts predict that the domestic box office could generate between $9.2 billion and $9.5 billion in 2025, a significant increase from last year's $8.7 billion and higher than the projected $9 billion for 2023. While these numbers represent an improvement, they still fall short of pre-pandemic figures, which included $11.4 billion in 2019 and $11.9 billion in 2018. Even before the pandemic, theaters were experiencing declines in attendance, a trend exacerbated during COVID-19 as audiences became accustomed to enjoying films from the comfort of their homes through streaming platforms.
As the pandemic and labor strikes affected the number of films in theaters and shortened the time between theatrical releases and home viewing, theaters have lost significant business from casual moviegoers. “When the content is good, people show up,” Handler stated. “The current content cycle is favorable, and hopefully, we will see that trend continue over the next two years.”
