As we move into 2025, movie theaters are not seeing the bustling crowds they once did, and this month is shaping up to be one of the weakest in recent memory. Despite the release of two new wide films — Paramount's slapstick comedy “Novocaine” and Focus Features' spy thriller “Black Bag” — exhibitors face a particularly challenging weekend, with predictions indicating that no film will gross over $10 million. This disappointing trend hasn't been observed since February 2024, when Apple's anticipated franchise opener “Argylle” struggled significantly in its second week.
The outlook for this weekend is grim, particularly following the Super Bowl weekend on February 7, which recorded the lowest box office earnings of 2025 in North America. During that weekend, “Dog Man” led the charts with only $13 million, pushing the total box office for all releases to a mere $55.8 million. Current estimates suggest this weekend could perform even worse.
Currently, “Novocaine” appears to be in a favorable position to claim the No. 1 spot, although “Black Bag” and last week's release, “Mickey 17,” are close contenders. Directed by Dan Berk and Robert Olsen, “Novocaine” features Jack Quaid as a banker-turned-vigilante who lacks the ability to feel pain. The film earned $3.9 million across Friday and preview screenings in 3,365 locations, with a projected debut of approximately $8.5 million. Initial forecasts of a $10 million opening now seem unlikely, though Saturday's box office performance will provide a clearer picture of its momentum.
The production budget for “Novocaine” stands at $18 million, making it a relatively modest investment for Paramount. The film has received positive reviews, which could indicate a potential for a longer theatrical run, yet audience polling by Cinema Score yielded a mixed “B” grade among ticket buyers.
Meanwhile, Focus Features is anticipating a third-place finish with “Black Bag,” directed by Steven Soderbergh and featuring an ensemble cast that includes Cate Blanchett, Michael Fassbender, and Pierce Brosnan. The R-rated film, which explores themes of marital and geopolitical espionage, earned $2.8 million from Friday and previews across 2,705 theaters. With a hefty production budget of $50 million, Focus is hoping the film performs well internationally to recoup costs. Despite Soderbergh's strong critical reputation, “Black Bag” has also received a lukewarm “B” grade from Cinema Score.
After debuting at No. 1 last weekend, Warner Bros.' “Mickey 17” is forecasted to drop to second place, earning an estimated $2.2 million on Friday. Analysts predict a significant 60% decline in box office revenue this weekend for Bong Joon Ho's interplanetary comedy, now projected to surpass $33 million in its first ten days — a disappointing result considering its $118 million production budget. With global ticket sales lagging, the film is unlikely to achieve profitability in theaters.
Disney's “Captain America: Brave New World” is expected to secure fourth place after accumulating another $1.5 million on Friday, bringing its domestic total to $181.4 million. As it winds down its theatrical run in its fifth week, the film has surpassed previous Marvel entries such as “Ant-Man” and “Thor,” but is still on track to be one of the lowest-grossing installments in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, ranking 28th out of 35 films.
Joining the fray this weekend, Ketchup Entertainment and Falling Forward Entertainment are set to round out the top five with “The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie,” which is opening in 2,827 theaters. Originally produced for Warner Bros. Discovery's now-rebranded streaming service, the animated feature earned approximately $1 million on its opening day, with hopes of crossing the $3 million mark in its debut. Reviews have been favorable, and Cinema Score stands at a solid “B+.”
In addition, “The Last Supper,” released by Pinnacle Peaks Pictures and not to be confused with the upcoming Fathom Events release, has entered the market playing in 1,575 locations. It earned about $1 million on its opening day, with Cinema Score reflecting a positive “A-” grade.
As the weekend unfolds, all eyes will be on the box office numbers, which will reveal whether any of these films can break the trend of low earnings and uplift the current state of the movie theater industry.
