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Private Sector Jobs Drop: What It Means for the U.S. Economy

7/2/2025
June's ADP report reveals a surprising drop of 33,000 jobs in the private sector, yet pay growth remains stable. Are we witnessing a shift in the labor market dynamics?
Private Sector Jobs Drop: What It Means for the U.S. Economy
Shocking job losses in June raise concerns about U.S. employment trends, but steady pay growth offers a silver lining. Discover the full report insights!

ADP National Employment Report: June 2025 Highlights

In a significant update to the U.S. labor market, the ADP National Employment Report has revealed that private sector employment experienced a decline of 33,000 jobs in June. This report, produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, provides valuable insights into the current state of the labor market, showcasing trends in employment and annual pay.

Understanding the ADP National Employment Report

The ADP National Employment Report serves as an independent and high-frequency measure of the private-sector labor market. It is based on actual, anonymized payroll data from over 25 million U.S. employees. This report offers a detailed view of the changes in private employment and pay, helping businesses and policymakers make informed decisions based on reliable data.

Key Findings from the June 2025 Report

The June report highlighted that while job losses were evident, annual pay growth remained strong, with a year-over-year increase of 4.4 percent. Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, noted that despite ongoing layoffs, the reluctance to hire and replace departing workers contributed to the job losses observed last month. However, this slowdown in hiring has not yet affected pay growth.

Employment Changes by Industry

The breakdown of the private employment changes by industry sector revealed that job losses were predominantly in professional and business services, as well as in education and health services. Notably, the following sectors experienced job losses:

Goods-producing: -32,000 jobs Service-providing: -66,000 jobs

Conversely, sectors such as leisure and hospitality and manufacturing saw gains in employment, indicating a mixed labor market landscape.

Regional Employment Changes

Analyzing the job changes by U.S. regions, the report indicated varying impacts:

Northeast: -3,000 jobs Midwest: -24,000 jobs South: +13,000 jobs West: -20,000 jobs

This regional analysis underscores the diverse challenges and opportunities faced by different areas across the United States.

Job Gains and Losses by Establishment Size

The report also highlighted changes in employment based on establishment size:

Small establishments (1-19 employees): -47,000 jobs Medium establishments (50-249 employees): -15,000 jobs Large establishments (500+ employees): +30,000 jobs

This data indicates that larger companies may be faring better in the current economic climate compared to their smaller counterparts.

Insights on Pay Growth

Despite the job losses, pay growth remained stable. The median change in annual pay for job-stayers was recorded at 4.4 percent, while job-changers saw a slightly higher rate of 6.8 percent. The report also detailed pay changes by industry sector, revealing that sectors such as trade/transportation/utilities and education/health services have experienced notable pay growth.

Conclusion and Future Outlook

The June 2025 ADP National Employment Report underscores a complex scenario in the U.S. labor market, characterized by job losses in specific sectors while pay growth remains resilient. For businesses and policymakers, these insights are crucial for navigating the evolving economic landscape. The next report will be released on July 30, 2025, providing further updates on employment trends.

For more detailed insights, visit the official ADP National Employment Report website at adpemploymentreport.com where you can explore interactive charts, subscribe to monthly email alerts, and access comprehensive employment and pay data.

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