For economists who closely monitor the job market, the first Friday of each month is typically akin to Christmas morning. On this day, the Labor Department releases its highly anticipated report on jobs and unemployment, a crucial economic indicator. However, the first Friday of October delivered disappointing news, as the jobs report was postponed due to the ongoing government shutdown. Instead of eagerly awaiting the report at 8:30 am, economist Allison Shrivastava found herself spending a leisurely morning sipping coffee and taking her dog for an extended walk.
The monthly jobs report is one of the most closely watched economic indicators, capable of moving financial markets depending on whether hiring numbers exceed or fall short of expectations. It provides valuable insights into which industries are expanding or contracting and reveals trends in the workforce, such as which workers are entering or exiting the job market. "The jobs report is every labor economist's favorite time of the month," states Daniel Zhao, chief economist at Glassdoor. Unfortunately for economists, this month’s anticipated report will not be released until the government shutdown is resolved, as many federal employees involved in compiling the report are currently furloughed.
Economists had anticipated that the October report would indicate an addition of approximately 50,000 jobs in September. This figure represented an improvement from the previous month's addition of just 22,000 jobs, although it was still a significant decline compared to the 240,000 jobs created during the same month last year. Some slowdown in job growth is expected, particularly in light of the Trump administration's crackdown on undocumented immigrants, which has reduced the available labor supply. However, it remains unclear whether the recent decline is due to fewer job openings or a diminished pool of workers. "I think everybody agrees that it's not the kind of job growth we had a year ago," remarks Betsey Stevenson, an economist at the University of Michigan and former White House economist. "We can't sustain job growth at such a rapid pace while also reducing our foreign-born workforce."
While layoffs have not surged, finding a job has become increasingly challenging for many, particularly those seeking their first positions. "Due to the uncertainty in the current economic climate, both employers and job seekers seem to be holding their breath, waiting to make decisions," explains Shrivastava. With the absence of the jobs report, businesses and policymakers are left to speculate on economic direction, which is particularly difficult in a time of economic transition. "It's like navigating a winding road on a foggy night without headlights or GPS," Stevenson adds. "During periods of economic change, reliable data becomes even more critical."
Despite the postponement of the jobs report, alternative sources of information about the labor market do exist. Payroll processors can report on direct deposit counts, and job search websites can compile data on job vacancies. However, economists universally agree that there is no true substitute for the comprehensive data provided by the federal government’s statistical agencies. "There's no making up for a survey that captures tens of millions of employees," Stevenson emphasizes. "Nothing else comes close."
In addition to delaying the jobs report, the government shutdown has also interrupted the collection of data for future reports, including the crucial inflation report scheduled for release in less than two weeks. A similar government shutdown in 2013 resulted in a 16-day delay of numerous economic releases in the following months. Zhao expresses hope for a swift resolution to the current shutdown, longing for the return of the monthly jobs report tradition. "We've got our fingers crossed," he says, wishing to return to the routine of eagerly unwrapping the results on the first Friday of each month.
