The US central bank has recently revised its growth forecast downwards, attributing this shift to the impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs on imports, which are driving up prices. In a statement released on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rates at approximately 4.3%, a level it has held since December, while expressing its desire to observe the unfolding effects of White House policies.
During a press briefing, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell conveyed that the economy still appeared to be healthy, despite a noticeable decline in sentiment and heightened uncertainty. He cautioned, however, that the tariffs—essentially taxes imposed on imports—are likely to decelerate economic growth and complicate the Fed's efforts to maintain price stability. Powell pointed to recent data indicating an uptick in goods prices, stating, "Clearly some of it, a good part of it, is coming from tariffs. Progress is probably delayed for the time being."
Since taking office in January, Trump has implemented a series of new tariffs and has advocated for substantial cuts to taxes, regulation, and government spending. Economists have been cautioning that these policies could lead to short-term price increases and generate uncertainty for businesses. The stock market has also felt the repercussions, with the S&P 500 experiencing a 10% decline, returning to levels not seen since September.
Trump has acknowledged the potential for some disruption due to his tariffs but insists that these policies will ultimately foster long-term economic growth. The current situation adds complexity to the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve, which has been striving to keep inflation in check and prevent an economic downturn.
The latest forecasts from the Federal Reserve indicate expectations of inflation rising to 2.7% by the end of this year, up from a previously anticipated 2.5%. Moreover, growth projections have been adjusted downward to 1.7%, compared to the earlier estimate of 2.1%. Although the Fed kept interest rates steady during this announcement, the forecasts suggest the possibility of rate cuts by the year’s end.
In a strategic move to support the economy, the Fed also announced a slowdown in the selling of assets, including government debt. For now, the Fed is adopting a cautious "wait and see" approach as it evaluates whether the recent economic slowdown will escalate into a more significant issue.
Following the Fed's announcement, major stock indexes in the US saw a boost, with the S&P 500 closing up more than 1%. While Trump, who has previously criticized the Fed, did not comment immediately on the meeting, Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, downplayed concerns regarding the tariffs' impact. He echoed Powell's view that any tariff effects would be temporary, emphasizing the administration's respect for the Fed's independence.
The Fed began raising borrowing costs significantly in 2022 to temper the economy and alleviate the inflationary pressures. As of February, inflation rates have decreased to 2.8%, yet they still surpass the Fed's target of 2%. Recent surveys indicate that public sentiment has dipped, with rising expectations for inflation, which complicates the Fed’s mission to stabilize prices.
As households anticipate price increases, there is a tendency to make purchases sooner, which can further exacerbate inflation as businesses respond to heightened demand by raising prices. Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter, noted that while leading indicators of demand may be slowing, inflation remains a serious concern and risks escalating if proposed economic policies persist.
Powell stated that the bank is closely monitoring these surveys but has not yet observed concrete evidence in the data to raise alarm about the economy's trajectory. "We're well-positioned to wait for further clarity and not in any hurry," he concluded, underscoring the Fed's commitment to a measured approach in navigating these turbulent economic waters.
